Liga Profesional · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 29% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Profesional average is 33%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 71% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Argentinos JRS at 65%, the draw at 25% and Aldosivi at 10%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 0.43.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Argentinos JRS have 8 in 24 this season (4 of 14 at home), Aldosivi 5 in 22 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 28%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Argentinos JRS and 0.43 for Aldosivi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 29%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentinos JRS | 24 | 33% | 13% | 42% |
| Aldosivi | 22 | 23% | 14% | 45% |
More: Argentinos JRS season stats · Aldosivi season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.