Arezzo v Palermo — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Serie B · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 48%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Arezzo at 46%, the draw at 26% and Palermo at 28%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.12.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Arezzo have 0 in 0 this season, Palermo 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 43% and 45%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Arezzo and 1.12 for Palermo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.

Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 43%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Palermo season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.