Primera Nacional · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 23% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 30%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 77% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% | 91% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts All Boys at 46%, the draw at 37% and Chaco For Ever at 18%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 0.47.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. All Boys have 5 in 25 this season (1 of 13 at home), Chaco For Ever 7 in 25 (3 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 22% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 26%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 17%, from expected goals of 0.94 for All Boys and 0.47 for Chaco For Ever. Folding in 30% of that view gives 23%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Boys | 25 | 20% | 8% | 36% |
| Chaco For Ever | 25 | 28% | 12% | 44% |
More: All Boys season stats · Chaco For Ever season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.