Primera Division · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Alianza Lima at 65%, the draw at 24% and Deportivo Garcilaso at 11%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 0.5.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Alianza Lima have 9 in 22 this season (7 of 11 at home), Deportivo Garcilaso 7 in 22 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Alianza Lima and 0.5 for Deportivo Garcilaso. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 22 | 41% | 18% | 50% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 22 | 32% | 18% | 45% |
More: Alianza Lima season stats · Deportivo Garcilaso season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.