Canadian Premier League · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Canadian Premier League average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Supra Du Quebec at 22%, the draw at 23% and Forge at 55%, from expected goals of 1.03 and 1.77.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Supra Du Quebec have 11 in 17 this season (5 of 9 at home), Forge 8 in 17 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.03 for Supra Du Quebec and 1.77 for Forge. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supra Du Quebec | 17 | 65% | 35% | 82% |
| Forge | 17 | 47% | 29% | 47% |
More: Supra Du Quebec season stats · Forge season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.