Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Stuttgart W at 73%, the draw at 15% and Hamburger SV W at 12%, from expected goals of 2.94 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stuttgart W have 19 in 27 this season (11 of 14 at home), Hamburger SV W 15 in 26 (7 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 2.94 for Stuttgart W and 1.18 for Hamburger SV W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart W | 27 | 70% | 59% | 63% |
| Hamburger SV W | 26 | 58% | 42% | 62% |
More: Hamburger SV W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.