League Two · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League Two average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Stranraer at 46%, the draw at 26% and Kelty Hearts at 28%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stranraer have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 2 at home), Kelty Hearts 2 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Stranraer and 1.08 for Kelty Hearts. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stranraer | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Kelty Hearts | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
More: Stranraer season stats · Kelty Hearts season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.