3. Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 45%, the draw at 24% and FC Ingolstadt 04 at 31%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.36.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), FC Ingolstadt 04 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 74% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.66 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.36 for FC Ingolstadt 04. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 2 | 50% | 50% | 100% |
More: FC Ingolstadt 04 season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.