Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts SC Freiburg W at 54%, the draw at 20% and Union Berlin W at 26%, from expected goals of 2.27 and 1.57.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Freiburg W have 18 in 26 this season (10 of 13 at home), Union Berlin W 20 in 26 (11 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.27 for SC Freiburg W and 1.57 for Union Berlin W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg W | 26 | 69% | 38% | 62% |
| Union Berlin W | 26 | 77% | 42% | 69% |
More: SC Freiburg W season stats · Union Berlin W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.