Sampdoria v Juve Stabia — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Serie B · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 47%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Sampdoria at 45%, the draw at 28% and Juve Stabia at 27%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 0.93.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Sampdoria have 15 in 38 this season (7 of 19 at home), Juve Stabia 18 in 41 (11 of 21 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 47%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.

Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Sampdoria and 0.93 for Juve Stabia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Sampdoria season stats · Juve Stabia season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.