Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 66%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Rosengård W at 20%, the draw at 21% and Häcken W at 60%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 2.11.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rosengård W have 7 in 14 this season (4 of 7 at home), Häcken W 11 in 14 (7 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Rosengård W and 2.11 for Häcken W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosengård W | 14 | 50% | 21% | 64% |
| Häcken W | 14 | 79% | 43% | 50% |
More: Rosengård W season stats · Häcken W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.