NB I · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NB I average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Nyiregyhaza at 56%, the draw at 20% and Paks at 24%, from expected goals of 2.28 and 1.47.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nyiregyhaza have 3 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Paks 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.28 for Nyiregyhaza and 1.47 for Paks. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyhaza | 4 | 75% | 25% | 50% |
| Paks | 4 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Nyiregyhaza season stats · Paks season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.