Serie B · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Novorizontino at 45%, the draw at 30% and Sport Recife at 25%, from expected goals of 1.22 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Novorizontino have 18 in 34 this season (10 of 17 at home), Sport Recife 9 in 23 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.22 for Novorizontino and 0.83 for Sport Recife. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 34 | 53% | 21% | 47% |
| Sport Recife | 23 | 39% | 17% | 61% |
More: Novorizontino season stats · Sport Recife season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.