Notts County v Burton Albion — prediction, stats and goal analysis

League One · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 51%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Notts County at 42%, the draw at 26% and Burton Albion at 32%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 1.21.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Notts County have 0 in 1 this season (0 of 1 at home), Burton Albion 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 49%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 50%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Notts County and 1.21 for Burton Albion. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Notts County season stats · Burton Albion season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.