NWSL (W) · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 55%, the draw at 24% and Portland Thorns W at 21%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NJ/NY Gotham FC W have 6 in 20 this season (3 of 11 at home), Portland Thorns W 12 in 20 (8 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.66 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 0.92 for Portland Thorns W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 20 | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Portland Thorns W | 20 | 60% | 45% | 55% |
More: NJ/NY Gotham FC W season stats · Portland Thorns W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.