Madrid CFF W v Granada — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Liga F (W) · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga F (W) average is 50%.

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Our ratings for this match

Market	Yes	No	Our call
Over 2.5 goals	44%	56%	Under
Over 3.5 goals	27%	73%	no pick
Both teams to score	42%	58%	No

The result model puts Madrid CFF W at 27%, the draw at 27% and Granada at 45%, from expected goals of 0.99 and 1.36.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Liga F (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Madrid CFF W have 15 in 30 this season (4 of 15 at home), Granada 11 in 30 (5 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 41%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 0.99 for Madrid CFF W and 1.36 for Granada. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Team	Games	O2.5	O3.5	BTTS
Madrid CFF W	30	50%	37%	47%
Granada	30	37%	23%	37%

Head to head

26 May 26Granada 3–4 Madrid CFF WO2.5

1 Nov 25Madrid CFF W 0–1 GranadaU2.5

16 Mar 25Madrid CFF W 3–1 GranadaO2.5

14 Dec 24Granada 1–0 Madrid CFF WU2.5

31 Mar 24Granada 3–0 Madrid CFF WO2.5

8 Oct 23Madrid CFF W 1–0 GranadaU2.5

Things worth knowing

Madrid CFF W return after a break of about 13 weeks — our research found form streaks reset over long lay-offs.
Granada return after a break of about 13 weeks.

More: Madrid CFF W season stats · Granada season stats · Liga F (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.