Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Ironi Tiberias — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 53%.

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Our ratings for this match

Market	Yes	No	Our call
Over 2.5 goals	55%	45%	Over
Over 3.5 goals	37%	63%	no pick
Both teams to score	54%	46%	Yes

The result model puts Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 49%, the draw at 23% and Ironi Tiberias at 27%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.26.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Ironi Kiryat Shmona have 21 in 33 this season (11 of 17 at home), Ironi Tiberias 15 in 33 (7 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 48%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona and 1.26 for Ironi Tiberias. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Team	Games	O2.5	O3.5	BTTS
Ironi Kiryat Shmona	33	64%	45%	70%
Ironi Tiberias	33	45%	36%	45%

Head to head

26 Apr 26Ironi Tiberias 2–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaU2.5

14 Feb 26Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2–2 Ironi TiberiasO2.5

8 Nov 25Ironi Tiberias 2–3 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaO2.5

19 Apr 25Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–2 Ironi TiberiasU2.5

31 Dec 24Ironi Tiberias 3–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaO2.5

14 Sept 24Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2–0 Ironi TiberiasU2.5

Things worth knowing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona return after a break of about 15 weeks — our research found form streaks reset over long lay-offs.
Ironi Tiberias return after a break of about 15 weeks.

More: Ironi Kiryat Shmona season stats · Ironi Tiberias season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.