IF Elfsborg v Degerfors IF — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Allsvenskan · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Allsvenskan average is 53%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts IF Elfsborg at 51%, the draw at 25% and Degerfors IF at 24%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.01.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. IF Elfsborg have 8 in 17 this season (4 of 9 at home), Degerfors IF 9 in 17 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.

Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.59 for IF Elfsborg and 1.01 for Degerfors IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: IF Elfsborg season stats · Degerfors IF season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.