Urvalsdeild · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 60%, the draw at 20% and Thor Akureyri at 21%, from expected goals of 2.25 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IBV Vestmannaeyjar have 13 in 19 this season (7 of 10 at home), Thor Akureyri 11 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.25 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar and 1.27 for Thor Akureyri. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 19 | 68% | 47% | 79% |
| Thor Akureyri | 19 | 58% | 42% | 53% |
More: IBV Vestmannaeyjar season stats · Thor Akureyri season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.