Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Hapoel Ramat Gan at 27%, the draw at 24% and Hapoel Beer Sheva at 50%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 1.71.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hapoel Ramat Gan have 21 in 39 this season (10 of 20 at home), Hapoel Beer Sheva 20 in 36 (9 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.19 for Hapoel Ramat Gan and 1.71 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Ramat Gan | 39 | 54% | 33% | 62% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 36 | 56% | 39% | 56% |
More: Hapoel Beer Sheva season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.