Gillingham v Northampton — prediction, stats and goal analysis

League Two · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The League Two average is 48%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Gillingham at 35%, the draw at 27% and Northampton at 38%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.32.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Gillingham have 1 in 1 this season (1 of 1 at home), Northampton 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 47%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 46% and 48%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Gillingham and 1.32 for Northampton. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Gillingham season stats · Northampton season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.