Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts FSV Mainz 05 at 32%, the draw at 26% and SC Paderborn 07 at 42%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.45.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FSV Mainz 05 have 18 in 34 this season (7 of 17 at home), SC Paderborn 07 22 in 36 (8 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.23 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.45 for SC Paderborn 07. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 53% | 32% | 62% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 36 | 61% | 25% | 67% |
More: FSV Mainz 05 season stats · SC Paderborn 07 season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.