2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Bundesliga average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Energie Cottbus at 47%, the draw at 24% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 29%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Energie Cottbus have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.69 for Energie Cottbus and 1.3 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energie Cottbus | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2 | 50% | 50% | 100% |
More: Energie Cottbus season stats · SpVgg Greuther Fürth season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.