Liga F (W) · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga F (W) average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36%, the draw at 28% and Sevilla W at 36%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. Liga F (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo de La Coruña W have 16 in 30 this season (8 of 15 at home), Sevilla W 15 in 30 (6 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Deportivo de La Coruña W and 1.17 for Sevilla W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo de La Coruña W | 30 | 53% | 37% | 47% |
| Sevilla W | 30 | 50% | 33% | 33% |
More: Deportivo de La Coruña W season stats · Sevilla W season stats · Liga F (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.