Primera Division · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 62%, the draw at 20% and Juan Pablo II College at 18%, from expected goals of 2.14 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Deportivo Los Chankas have 11 in 22 this season (6 of 12 at home), Juan Pablo II College 13 in 22 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.14 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.05 for Juan Pablo II College. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 22 | 50% | 36% | 55% |
| Juan Pablo II College | 22 | 59% | 36% | 64% |
More: Club Deportivo Los Chankas season stats · Juan Pablo II College season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.