Canadian Premier League · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 22:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Canadian Premier League average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Cavalry FC at 58%, the draw at 22% and Vancouver FC at 20%, from expected goals of 1.92 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cavalry FC have 8 in 17 this season (5 of 8 at home), Vancouver FC 8 in 18 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 36%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.92 for Cavalry FC and 1.04 for Vancouver FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavalry FC | 17 | 47% | 18% | 47% |
| Vancouver FC | 18 | 44% | 33% | 50% |
More: Cavalry FC season stats · Vancouver FC season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.