Canadian Premier League · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Canadian Premier League average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Atlético Ottawa at 62%, the draw at 20% and York United at 18%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atlético Ottawa have 13 in 18 this season (6 of 9 at home), York United 9 in 15 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 58%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Atlético Ottawa and 1.04 for York United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Ottawa | 18 | 72% | 44% | 72% |
| York United | 15 | 60% | 60% | 73% |
More: Atlético Ottawa season stats · York United season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.