Ascoli v Carrarese — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Serie B · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 48%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Ascoli at 47%, the draw at 26% and Carrarese at 27%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.1.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Ascoli have 0 in 0 this season, Carrarese 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 50%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Ascoli and 1.1 for Carrarese. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.

Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 46%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Carrarese season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.