Arbroath v Livingston — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Championship average is 44%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Arbroath at 47%, the draw at 30% and Livingston at 23%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 0.77.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Arbroath have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Livingston 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 40%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 60%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Arbroath and 0.77 for Livingston. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Arbroath season stats · Livingston season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.