Pro League · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Fateh at 38%, the draw at 24% and Al-Ittihad FC at 37%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Fateh have 1 in 1 this season, Al-Ittihad FC 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 45% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Al-Fateh and 1.49 for Al-Ittihad FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fateh | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
More: Al-Fateh season stats · Al-Ittihad FC season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.