1. FC Heidenheim v Dynamo Dresden — prediction, stats and goal analysis

2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Bundesliga average is 58%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 53%, the draw at 21% and Dynamo Dresden at 26%, from expected goals of 2.05 and 1.39.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. 1. FC Heidenheim have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Dynamo Dresden 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 58%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 69%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.05 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.39 for Dynamo Dresden. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: 1. FC Heidenheim season stats · Dynamo Dresden season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.