Damallsvenskan (W) · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 66%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Uppsala W at 38%, the draw at 26% and Eskilstuna United W at 36%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Uppsala W have 11 in 14 this season (5 of 7 at home), Eskilstuna United W 4 in 14 (2 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Uppsala W and 1.3 for Eskilstuna United W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uppsala W | 14 | 79% | 57% | 36% |
| Eskilstuna United W | 14 | 29% | 7% | 14% |
More: Uppsala W season stats · Eskilstuna United W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.