Damallsvenskan (W) · Friday, 28 August 2026. Final score 0–6 (half-time 0–5). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 59% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Uppsala W at 37%, the draw at 26% and Eskilstuna United W at 37%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 1.41.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Uppsala W have 12 in 15 this season (5 of 7 at home), Eskilstuna United W 4 in 15 (2 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.41 for Uppsala W and 1.41 for Eskilstuna United W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uppsala W | 15 | 80% | 60% | 40% |
| Eskilstuna United W | 15 | 27% | 7% | 13% |
More: Uppsala W season stats · Eskilstuna United W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.