Liga Profesional · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Profesional average is 33%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Union Santa Fe at 59%, the draw at 24% and Sarmiento Junin at 17%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 0.79.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Union Santa Fe have 12 in 23 this season (4 of 10 at home), Sarmiento Junin 11 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.69 for Union Santa Fe and 0.79 for Sarmiento Junin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 23 | 52% | 26% | 57% |
| Sarmiento Junin | 21 | 52% | 19% | 48% |
More: Union Santa Fe season stats · Sarmiento Junin season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.