Tamworth v Worthing — prediction, stats and goal analysis

National League · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 57%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Tamworth at 35%, the draw at 23% and Worthing at 41%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 1.67.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Tamworth have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Worthing 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 60%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 65%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Tamworth and 1.67 for Worthing. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Tamworth season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.