2. Liga · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts SV Kapfenberg at 21%, the draw at 24% and FC BW Linz at 55%, from expected goals of 0.97 and 1.72.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SV Kapfenberg have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), FC BW Linz 2 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 60% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 0.97 for SV Kapfenberg and 1.72 for FC BW Linz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Kapfenberg | 3 | 67% | 67% | 33% |
| FC BW Linz | 3 | 67% | 0% | 0% |
More: SV Kapfenberg season stats · FC BW Linz season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.