2. Liga · Friday, 28 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts SV Kapfenberg at 16%, the draw at 22% and FC BW Linz at 62%, from expected goals of 0.87 and 1.93.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SV Kapfenberg have 3 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), FC BW Linz 3 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 0.87 for SV Kapfenberg and 1.93 for FC BW Linz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Kapfenberg | 4 | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| FC BW Linz | 4 | 75% | 25% | 25% |
More: SV Kapfenberg season stats · FC BW Linz season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.