Cymru Premier · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Cymru Premier average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Llandudno at 56%, the draw at 22% and Haverfordwest County AFC at 22%, from expected goals of 1.98 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Llandudno have 3 in 3 this season (2 of 2 at home), Haverfordwest County AFC 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 70% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.98 for Llandudno and 1.18 for Haverfordwest County AFC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llandudno | 3 | 100% | 100% | 67% |
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 3 | 33% | 0% | 0% |
More: Haverfordwest County AFC season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.