Ykkosliiga · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ykkosliiga average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts JäPS at 47%, the draw at 27% and KäPa at 26%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 0.99.
The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. JäPS have 8 in 19 this season (3 of 10 at home), KäPa 14 in 20 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.41 for JäPS and 0.99 for KäPa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: JäPS season stats · KäPa season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.