Primera A · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 02:15. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera A average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Internacional de Bogota at 43%, the draw at 26% and Deportivo Pasto at 31%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Internacional de Bogota have 15 in 25 this season (7 of 12 at home), Deportivo Pasto 13 in 25 (8 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Internacional de Bogota and 1.19 for Deportivo Pasto. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional de Bogota | 25 | 60% | 28% | 64% |
| Deportivo Pasto | 25 | 52% | 24% | 52% |
More: Internacional de Bogota season stats · Deportivo Pasto season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.