Holywell v Caernarfon Town — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Cymru Premier · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Cymru Premier average is 54%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Holywell at 37%, the draw at 24% and Caernarfon Town at 40%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.59.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Holywell have 3 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Caernarfon Town 3 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 59%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 74% and 60%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Holywell and 1.59 for Caernarfon Town. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Caernarfon Town season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.