Fortuna Düsseldorf v Stuttgart II — prediction, stats and goal analysis

3. Liga · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Fortuna Düsseldorf at 36%, the draw at 23% and Stuttgart II at 41%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 1.77.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Fortuna Düsseldorf have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Stuttgart II 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 67%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 57% and 70%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.63 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.77 for Stuttgart II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Fortuna Düsseldorf season stats · Stuttgart II season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.