First League · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts CSKA 1948 at 59%, the draw at 24% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 17%, from expected goals of 1.72 and 0.8.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CSKA 1948 have 5 in 5 this season (3 of 3 at home), Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 in 5 (0 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.72 for CSKA 1948 and 0.8 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 | 5 | 100% | 60% | 100% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 40% | 0% | 40% |
More: CSKA 1948 season stats · Lokomotiv Plovdiv season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.