Copa do Brasil · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa do Brasil average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Cruzeiro at 42%, the draw at 28% and Atletico-MG at 30%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.03.
The league sets the starting point. Copa do Brasil has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cruzeiro have 13 in 22 this season (7 of 12 at home), Atletico-MG 11 in 22 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Cruzeiro and 1.03 for Atletico-MG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 22 | 59% | 27% | 64% |
| Atletico-MG | 22 | 50% | 32% | 45% |
More: Cruzeiro season stats · Atletico-MG season stats · Copa do Brasil table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.