Coquimbo Unido v U. Catolica — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Primera · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Primera average is 52%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Coquimbo Unido at 42%, the draw at 26% and U. Catolica at 32%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.25.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Coquimbo Unido have 9 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), U. Catolica 13 in 18 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 60%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.

Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Coquimbo Unido and 1.25 for U. Catolica. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Coquimbo Unido season stats · U. Catolica season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.