Primera Nacional · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 28% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 29%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 72% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Acassuso at 43%, the draw at 33% and San Telmo at 24%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 0.67.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Acassuso have 7 in 24 this season (3 of 11 at home), San Telmo 8 in 24 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 29% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 30%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Acassuso and 0.67 for San Telmo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Acassuso season stats · San Telmo season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.