Serie B · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 23:30. Our rating makes this 33% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Atletico Goianiense at 46%, the draw at 29% and Botafogo SP at 24%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 0.82.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico Goianiense have 8 in 22 this season (5 of 12 at home), Botafogo SP 10 in 30 (3 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Atletico Goianiense and 0.82 for Botafogo SP. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense | 22 | 36% | 9% | 55% |
| Botafogo SP | 30 | 33% | 17% | 40% |
More: Atletico Goianiense season stats · Botafogo SP season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.