Primera A · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera A average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Alianza Valledupar at 46%, the draw at 30% and Deportivo Pereira at 24%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 0.78.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Alianza Valledupar have 8 in 22 this season (4 of 12 at home), Deportivo Pereira 8 in 21 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.19 for Alianza Valledupar and 0.78 for Deportivo Pereira. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar | 22 | 36% | 18% | 50% |
| Deportivo Pereira | 21 | 38% | 33% | 38% |
More: Alianza Valledupar season stats · Deportivo Pereira season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.