Pro League · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 17:40. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts NEOM at 40%, the draw at 24% and Al-Qadisiyah FC at 37%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.53.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NEOM have 1 in 1 this season (1 of 1 at home), Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 in 1 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.6 for NEOM and 1.53 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEOM | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: NEOM season stats · Al-Qadisiyah FC season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.