Allsvenskan · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Allsvenskan average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Malmo FF at 37%, the draw at 22% and Djurgardens IF at 41%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.8.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 59% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 41% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 50% | -11% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Malmo FF 2.55, draw 3.60, Djurgardens IF 2.40.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Malmo FF have 12 in 17 this season (8 of 8 at home), Djurgardens IF 10 in 16 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.7 for Malmo FF and 1.8 for Djurgardens IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF | 17 | 71% | 53% | 71% |
| Djurgardens IF | 16 | 63% | 44% | 50% |
More: Malmo FF season stats · Djurgardens IF season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.