Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Mainz 05 W at 76%, the draw at 14% and Werder Bremen W at 9%, from expected goals of 2.75 and 0.89.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mainz 05 W have 18 in 25 this season (9 of 13 at home), Werder Bremen W 14 in 26 (8 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.75 for Mainz 05 W and 0.89 for Werder Bremen W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 W | 25 | 72% | 56% | 44% |
| Werder Bremen W | 26 | 54% | 31% | 54% |
More: Werder Bremen W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.