Primera Clausura · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Primera Clausura average is 42%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Libertad Asuncion at 70%, the draw at 19% and Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 11%, from expected goals of 2.14 and 0.72.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Libertad Asuncion have 14 in 27 this season (7 of 13 at home), Club Sp. San Lorenzo 9 in 27 (5 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 2.14 for Libertad Asuncion and 0.72 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad Asuncion | 27 | 52% | 26% | 48% |
| Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 27 | 33% | 19% | 37% |
More: Libertad Asuncion season stats · Club Sp. San Lorenzo season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.